The Invincible Ignorance of Government Officials

Ian Bowles, the secretary of energy and environmental affairs for the State of Massachusetts contributed an Op-Ed piece to the New York Times yesterday, March 6, 2009. After reading it, I had that sinking feeling in my stomach when I hear yet another government official get it wrong. Let’s tackle some major points one by one.

It’s admirable that President Obama would like to double renewable energy in three years. But it’s not likely. In three years, we’ll see. But let’s be realistic. There is just not enough renewable energy to double renewables (including hydroelectric power) from the current 7% of total energy consumed to 14% in that time period. Currently, coal contributes 22% of all energy consumed, mostly for electric power generation, and that represents 49% of all of the electricity generated in the United States. Are we really going to produce enough renewable energy in three years to essentially displace one third of the billion-plus tons of coal we burn each year? Natural gas represents 23%, petroleum 40% and nuclear power is 8% of all energy consumed. Biomass and hydroelectric power represent 89% of the 7% of renewables that we consume now. Government officials have to start reading their own government’s statistics produced by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) before they spout this blather. In 2030 the EIA estimates that non-hydroelectric renewable energy will account for about 8% of all the energy consumed in the U.S.

There is a lot of hot air coming out of Washington and state capitals about renewables but let’s be factual. Ian Bowles wants offshore wind but it has been no easy task for developers to build a wind project off the coast of Massachusetts in Nantucket Sound. Opposition from Senator Kennedy and others have delayed this project. And the Long Island wind project was buried because Long Islanders just didn’t want to look at wind mills that were 400 feet tall and had a 400 foot wing span. Moreover, Mr. Bowles and others like him promote hydroelectric plants, but try getting one built in this country. There is no more big hydro coming because of objections ranging from fish spawning, recreational use of rivers, water usage fights, silting and huge water impoundments that submerge vast amounts of real estate along with the towns and people displaced by the deluge. There were protests in the states over the Three Gorges project in China. Everyone wants renewable energy until you start using vast amounts of their land near to where they live.

Mr. Bowles doesn’t like large transmission lines. He says that transmission losses “gobbles up an estimated 2 percent to 3 percent of electricity nationally.” First, let’s get this straight: Transmission and Distribution losses gobble up as much as 9% of the electricity generated at the power plant. That’s just a fact and it has not prevented us from building transmission in the past and it will not do so in the future. I commend to Mr. Bowles the EIA’s Annual Energy Review 2007, page 221, footnote “f”. It’s right there in the fine print. We need big transmission for important reasons. People do not want to live near power plants, so they are more often than not in more remote areas. We have to transmit that power to the load center. Moreover, more transmission lines will de-bottleneck the very inadequate electric transmission system in the country and reduce the need for additional generation. That means less fuel burned, less pollutants in the air and less carbon dioxide. I also commend to Mr. Bowles the "National Electric Transmission Congestion Study" produced by the DOE in August 2006.

The final point I’ll address is cap and trade. This is tantamount to a tax on all of us because the extent to which we burn fossil fuels, all of which contain carbon to one extent or another, will not be reduced for decades. And they will only be reduced in any significant way if we have a comprehensive (non-political) energy policy with real teeth. EIA’s statistics for all energy use that I quoted above show us that 85% (coal: 22%, natural gas: 23%, petroleum: 40%) of all energy used comes from carbon-producing fossil fuel. The cap and trade tax is a pretext. It will not reduce carbon any time soon but it will burden all of us, especially the least capable among us of paying it, with more taxes that our central government can waste. It's just taxes gussied up to look like something else.

With respect to an energy policy with teeth, if I were president . . . .